Forecasting in long horizons using smoothed direct forecast

This paper constructs a forecast method that obtains long‐horizon forecasts with improved performance through modification of the direct forecast approach. Direct forecasts are more robust to model misspecification compared to iterated forecasts, which makes them preferable in long horizons. However, direct forecast estimates tend to have jagged shapes across horizons. Our forecast method aims to “smooth out” erratic estimates across horizons while maintaining the robust aspect of direct forecasts through ridge regression, which is a restricted regression on the first differences of regression coefficients. The forecasts are compared to the conventional iterated and direct forecasts in two empirical applications: real oil prices and US macroeconomic series. In both applications, our method shows improvement over direct forecasts.     

Vaidya-Bonner-de Sitter黑洞的量子非热辐射及视界表面引力

在Vaidya-Bonner-deSitter黑洞时空中，通过研究Hamihon-Jacobi方程，采用tortoise坐标变换，讨论了此黑洞的量子非热辐射及视界表面引力问题．     

Developmental modes of the Neoproterozoic-Lower Paleozoic marine hydrocarbon source rocks in China

Based on the researches on rock type, the mode of occurrence, diagnostic minerals and creatures, the sedimentary geochemistry and organic facies of Chinese marine source rocks from wells and outcrops, and on the research findings of developmental modes of foreign marine source rock, the authors consider that it is impossible to objectively make clear the formation mechanism of hydrocarbon source rock with high organic matter abundance by either single mode of preservation or high organic matter productivity. According to the Chinese geological features, the formation mechanism of the Neoproterozoic-Lower Paleozoic marine source rock is generalized into four modes, namely, thermal water activity-upwelling flow-anoxic; carbonate gentle slope-upwelling flow; xerothermic climate-brine euxinic milieu; and humid climate-retained euxinic milieu; as the Lower Cambrian undercompensation basin organic facies （the Tarim Basin, South China and southwestern margin of North China）, carbonate gentle lime mud bound organic facies （the Upper Ordovician in Tazhong region of the Tarim Basin and the Lower Silurian in the Upper Yangtze Platform）, the Middle Cambrian evaporation laggon organic facies （the Tarim Basin and the Upper Yangtze Platform）, enclosed undercompensation terrigenous bay organic facies （the Middle-Upper Ordovician in the west of the Tarim Basin, the Lower Silurian Long- maxi Formation in the Upper Yangtze platform）. Chinese marine sedimentations with lower organic matter abundance are generalized into two modes of consumption-dilution mode of open epicontinental sea and depletion-dilution mode of supercompensation basin.     

An efficient algorithm to generate candidates in discovering frequent episodes

0 IntroductionData mining is widely used in many research fieldssuch as decision supporting systems[1], bio-informationanalysis[2]and knowledge engineering[3-5]. Most data col-lected from scientific experiments or telecommunicationnetworks have inherent sequential nature inthemand canthus be abstractly viewed as a sequence of events . Onebasic problemin miningsuchevent sequencesis discoveryof recurrent combinations of events , which are calledepisodes. Once frequent episodes are discovered,rul…     

基于DELPHI5的高校选修课管理系统的设计与实现

主要介绍高校选修课管理系统的设计思想，并着重分析和讨论了后台数据库的设计方法和原理，最后讨论了运用Delphi5开发该系统的整个过程。     

武汉地区网纹层的若干问题

根据大量钻孔和开挖剖面的资料,对武汉地区网纹层的剖面特征、物质组成、孢粉组合、成因以及其与新构造运动的关系,作了初步的论述。     

确定事件视界的新公式

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真空C-度规中的虚Weyl坐标

研究了在真空C-度规中扩大Weyl坐标及其覆盖的时空区域的可能性. 结果表明:Weyl坐标可以扩大到虚坐标区域,虚Weyl坐标区域覆盖了真空C-度规视界内部区域. 获得了Weyl坐标下真空C-度规完整的时空图.     

基于VHDL的时延Petri网仿真

在实时控制系统中,常常需要使用时延Petri网对系统进行建模、分析.作者提出了用硬件描述语言对时延Petri网进行描述,用VHDL语言中的wait语句和after语句来模拟Petri网中的时延特性,通过EDA软件工具对时延Petri网进行仿真,获得系统的动态性能,这为时延Petri网的分析提供了新的路径,并为控制系统的设计和电路实现奠定了基础.文章最后给出了一个实例,仿真波形表明了这种方法的正确性.     

临近空间单粒子效应的数值模型和电路模拟

针对临近空间单粒子效应进行了数值模型仿真和特征尺寸为0.1 μm的反相器电路的脉冲注入模拟研究。数值仿真结果表明器件临界电荷随着工作电压的降低而减小,敏感横截面随着临界电荷的降低而逐渐增大。临近空间微电子器件的单粒子翻转概率随敏感横截面增大而上升,但其又随临近空间高度的增加而下降。此外,利用SPICE软件脉冲注入模拟观察到了反相器电路的单粒子翻转现象。所得结论有助于深入研究临近空间的单粒子效应并为器件抗辐射加固提供了理论依据。